Anti-Vaccine Sentiment – An Existential Disrupter of National and International Security

By |2021-03-25T11:52:16-10:00March 26th, 2021|

By Deon Canyon and Sebastian Kevany* Vaccine Fears versus Epidemic Containment There are at least 51 brands of viral vaccines containing inactivated or attenuated viruses. Inactivated vaccines prompt an immune response by introducing dead virus particles, while attenuated vaccines contain non-pathogenic live virus particles. These and other vaccines have been extremely effective around the world in preventing 6 million deaths annually, while in the United States, nine diseases have been reduced by 99%. People are unimmunized for various reasons. Most are children who miss out on basic immunization in developing nations due to lack of access. For instance, 190,000 children [...]

Looking Forward: Pandemic, Economic, Vaccine and Social Predictions for ‘Year Two’

By |2021-03-25T11:16:52-10:00March 25th, 2021|

By Sebastian Kevany and Deon Canyon* Summary:  Over a year in to the global pandemic, demand for prognoses and models that will assist in determining key decisions and planning remains as strong as ever – resulting in entire industries that provide forecasts, foresight and insight into possible future outcomes. This demand is in spite of the numerous failures of scientists, academics, politicians, and modelers to work out what is going to happen next.  Nonetheless, the authors attempt to advise on policy and planning decisions for professional activities over the coming six months, up to Autumn / Fall 2021. Never Make [...]

Time for the Pacific Islands Forum to Step-Back and Heal

By |2021-02-25T16:31:03-10:00February 25th, 2021|

By Deon Canyon  * Australia, Cook Islands, Fiji, Nauru, New Zealand, Tonga and Samoa founded the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) as the South Pacific Forum in 1971 and it has come to be considered the primary agency for regionalism in Oceania (Fig 1). Up until recently, its membership comprised the 14 sovereign United Nations member states (Australia, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Nauru, New Zealand, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Republic of Marshall Islands, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu); the 2 non-sovereign territories (French Polynesia and New Caledonia); and the 2 sovereign non-UN member states in association with [...]

Recommendations from Papua New Guinea on How to Improve U.S. Posture in the Pacific

By |2021-02-11T16:35:38-10:00February 11th, 2021|

By Deon Canyon[1] Michael Kabuni[2] Papua New Guinea (PNG) is a strategic asset in the Indo-Pacific geopolitical map and will continue to be used by Beijing, Washington, and Canberra until it picks a side, and probably even beyond that. The key reasons underlying the pursuit of PNG relate to gaining economic advantage and hegemonic dominance. PNG rightly expects that Washington, together with Canberra, would give as much ‘carrot’ as possible to Port Moresby rather than ‘stick’ for fear of losing an important ally to Beijing. Beijing is expected to apply the same amount of caution in preserving its positive external [...]

A Network of Maritime Fusion Centers Throughout the Indo-Pacific

By |2021-02-11T15:39:08-10:00February 11th, 2021|

By Deon Canyon PhD DBA MPH FACTM, Capt. Wade Turvold, U. S. Navy (Ret.) Capt. Jim McMullin, U.S. Navy* Summary Indo-Pacific maritime initiatives are urgently required to meet growing transboundary threats to international security. The establishment of a national maritime fusion center in the U.S. and a network of similar centers across the Indo-Pacific region would significantly advance maritime security cooperation. The lack of such centers hinders all nations from effectively developing a common operating picture that is required to protect the rules-based international order. This network must be empowered collectively to strengthen international law. Our ever-increasingly complex world changed [...]

Simplifying Complexity with Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning

By |2021-01-07T16:13:06-10:00January 7th, 2021|

Strategic foresight The world is constantly evolving and changing, which often results in significant impacts on society and the crisis management community. Staying ahead of the curve requires not only an understanding of systems and complexity, but also creative and collaborative thinking and action. Strategic foresight is an ancient and latent human capability. As for all innate talents, some people are better at it than others are, and training in structures, models and methods can make a big difference. Royal Dutch Shell is most often cited as an example of early foresight methodology development. Since the 1970s, they have explored [...]

Strategic Approaches to Simplifying Complex Adaptive Crises

By |2021-01-07T15:39:18-10:00January 7th, 2021|

Complexity and Systems Thinking We live and work in a world that is shrinking due to interconnectivity, but growing in terms of relationship diversity. Jostling world powers, enlarging economies, emerging technology, nefarious disruption, increased rate of change, and rapid diffusion of new innovations into society all act to increase threat, urgency and uncertainty (Lane and Down 2010, Sargut and McGrath 2011, Rohrbeck and Gemuenden 2011). The impact of this dynamic on the security environment has been to accelerate the development of current challenges and the emergence of novel challenges. Security challenges are fraught with complexity and have many of the [...]

Competitive Security Gaming: Rethinking Wargaming to Provide Competitive Intelligence that Informs Strategic Competition and National Security

By |2020-12-01T16:06:35-10:00November 24th, 2020|

This article illustrates how wargaming may be used to inform a higher-level strategy, rather than conflict. Summary Generating competitive intelligence to make intelligent decisions in a world increasingly facing complex security challenges is more difficult than ever before. Competitive Security Gaming reframes wargaming in terms of strategic, operational and tactical competition rather than conflict. Like business wargames, it produces quality insight into the reactions and strategies of competing actors. But unlike business games, it focuses on higher-level strategy, such as national security objectives, and is not driven by market value and financial gain. When it comes to operationalizing strategic competition [...]

Planning for Military Involvement in an Indo-Pacific Pandemic Vaccination Program

By |2020-11-18T14:48:25-10:00November 18th, 2020|

This article addresses the pros, cons, and planning of military involvement in an Indo-Pacific Pandemic Vaccination Program. Summary The Indo-Pacific contains most of the world’s population and many frail health systems that may falter when it comes to implementing a vast global vaccination campaign against COVID-19. For decades, military medicine has pioneered vaccination programs and is aware of the complex ethical considerations involved. Military involvement in vaccination programs could do immeasurable harm to soft power efforts and international relations if mishandled. It is likely that the Oslo humanitarian doctrine, stipulating that foreign military assistance should only be used as a [...]

Is the U.S. Relationship with Australia Detrimental to Strategic Aspirations with Papua New Guinea?

By |2020-10-19T15:45:08-10:00October 19th, 2020|

This article discusses the pitfalls of the U.S. - Australia relationship, and how they relate to Papua New Guinea. Excerpt The United States partnership with Australia is beyond doubt the most significant in Oceania. As a western nation, Australia holds many of the same values as the U.S. and there are extensive economic, diplomatic and military ties that bind the two countries together. There are, however, three detractors when it comes to adding Papua New Guinea (PNG) to the equation. While they should not affect the quality of the U.S.-Australia relationship, the U.S. should be seen as actively providing remedies [...]

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