Before it’s Too Late: U.S. Maritime Grand Strategy in the Indian Ocean and the Arctic Ocean

This paper examines the actions of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in the South China Sea as a means to predict their intent in the Indian and Artic Oceans.

Excerpt

The CCP’s unlawful aggression and coercive actions during the COVID-19 global pandemic forebodingly highlight its determination to achieve its objectives at all costs. For example, the CCP recently abandoned its promises regarding Hong Kong by enacting security measures that effectively outlaw dissent and subject Hong Kong’s citizens to mainland China’s prosecution. China also enacted trade barriers to Australia for challenging the PRC’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, China was recently accused of implementing forced sterilization of its minority Muslim populations. Finally, and perhaps most alarming, India asserts that China instigated the June 2020 border clash with India in the Galwan Valley that resulted in the death of 20 Indian soldiers.

View/Download Document
Date: 2020/08/12

Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: Practitioner Insights

This paper identifies the obstacles faced by terrorists as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and includes results from a survey sent out to Comprehensive Security Responses to Terrorism (CSRT) alumni in July 2020.

Excerpt
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on the world, with far-reaching social, political and economic consequences. Terrorists and security services alike have been forced to adapt. However, we still have relatively limited understanding of the changes that have occurred and what they mean for counter-terrorism (CT). This report presents the findings of an exploratory survey, completed by 100 security practitioners, in order to shed light on how terrorism and CT have been affected by the pandemic. Results suggest that, for the most part, terrorists appear to have gained relatively little in the short term. At the same time, although many practitioners have experienced additional challenges in CT, most of these problems have not been insurmountable. Looking to the future, there is significant concern that terrorism will increase in response to the social and economic fallout from the pandemic. As a result, most survey respondents agreed that countries will need to cooperate more closely with each other on CT, and that greater US support for CT in the Indo-Pacific will be needed.

View/Download Document
Date: 2020/08/06

What States Say They Can Do and COVID-19 Status at Six Months

This paper reports finding a significant positive correlation globally between countries’ SPAR scores that indicate their capacities to deal effectively with public health risks and events and their COVID-related morbidity and mortality. Significance disappears in most cases when examined regionally. The authors offer minimal speculation as to the reasons for the unexpected finding, but sensibly suggest both additional factors, not currently assessed by SPAR, and further research.

Abstract
The International Health Regulations (IHR) is a critical legal tool that ensures and improves the capacity of all signatories, or States Parties, to prevent detect, assess, notify, and respond to public health risks and acute events of domestic and international concern. States Parties of the IHR assess their capacities and report annually to the World Health Assembly on the implementation status of these regulations using the Self-Assessment Annual Reporting Tool (SPAR). This paper examines the relationship between total average SPAR scores and COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. A positive significant correlation was observed between total average SPAR score and log values of COVID-19 cases and deaths per 100,000 population. Nevertheless, when examined by World Health Organization regions, this positive significant correlation remained only for a few, signalling that regional dynamics and factors may not be adequately captured by SPAR scores. In addition to the State Parties assessment, a community and civil society inclusive IHR monitoring mechanism is recommended for a more comprehensive assessment.

View/Download Document
Date: 2020/07/31

Security Implications of Mass Returning Migrant workers due to COVID-19 crisis

This paper details the challenges migrant workers face and the resulting security issues brought on by COVID-19.

Abstract:
The issue of mass returning migrant workers has broad implications for human, national and regional security domains that go well beyond increasing unemployment. This paper reports on the complex web of security challenges surrounding migrant labor, as identified by security practitioners from the region. Regional and international cooperation are required to effectively manage the system to lessen the shock created by the COVID-19 crisis and for the longer-term challenges. Short, medium and long-term best practices and recommendations are offered to address the security challenges generated by the mass return of migrant workers.

View/Download Document
Date: 2020/07/29

Strategic Competition: Why Pakistan Matters

This paper emphasizes the importance of the U.S. maintaining a strong relationship with Pakistan as strategic competition with China intensifies.

Excerpt:
It is worth noting that Pakistan remains vitally important to U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific, not least because of its all-weather strategic cooperative partnership with China who regards it as an “element of its strategic competition with the United States and India.” The current state of U.S.-Pakistan relations is symptomatic of an increasing ambiguity that is counterproductive to advancing U.S. interests. To state the obvious, the more the U.S distances itself from Pakistan, a country not very long ago considered a “key U.S. ally in the region,” the more expedient it will be for China to pursue its global economic, political and military aspirations.

View/Download Document
Date: 2020/07/15

Why We Need a Regional Approach for Crisis Management with North Korea

This paper emphasizes the need for regional cooperation and the challenges involved in addressing crisis management in North Korea.

Excerpt:
While North Korea has an image of a “rogue state” that threatens neighboring countries with missiles and nuclear arsenals, we must not forget that North Korean people are experiencing starvation, malnutrition, poor health system, swine flu, flooding, drought, and land-slides, all of which will only be exacerbated in the wake of the global COVID-19 crisis. North Korea’s internal problems are expected to continue to grow in the foreseeable future and disasters experienced during the summer of 2020 will exacerbate current circumstances. Separating HADR from sanction issues and being proactive in providing assistance to a suffering population may prove to be the most effective strategy for engaging with Pyongyang.

View/Download Document
Date: 2020/07/15

The Intersection of Global Health, Military Medical intelligence, and National Security in the Management of Transboundary Hazards and Outbreaks

This paper identifies the many forms of evolving surveillance techniques that could be used for prevention and early warning of global pandemic outbreaks, and the resistance to such monitoring.

Excerpt:
The COVID-19 pandemic-induced, shocking collapse of national and international trade, air travel, and tourism have rocked the world, and brought into stark relief the need for better health and disease surveillance. We have witnessed the global economy brought to its knees by the rapid spread of infection, resulting in widespread illness and many deaths. The rise in nationalism and isolationism, political use of the blame game, along with locked-down peoples chafing against shelter-in-place, work, or travel restrictions, have caused further divisiveness.

View/Download Document
Date: 2020/07/01

Pacific Trident III:  The Strengths and Weaknesses of the U.S. Alliance System Under Gray Zone Operations

This paper looks at how tabletop exercises (TTX) are used to train participants on crisis management.  The TTX, Pacific Trident III,” was created and run by Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA (Sasakawa USA), a think tank based in Washington D.C.

Excerpt:
The tabletop exercise utilized two different crises at the same time, challenging the United States and allied players as to which was the ‘real’ crisis, and which merited prioritization. Also, both crises involved gray zone tactics (operations other than war) to achieve their objectives. In many ways, the fact that there were two gray zone operations at the same time showed the alliance system’s strengths and exposed some of its weaknesses.

View/Download Document
Date: 2020/06/26

Policy Guidance for Pakistan’s Oscillation Response to COVID-19

In this paper, Asma Khawaja and Dr. Deon Canyon detail how shifting policy guidance affected Pakistan’s response to COVID-19, including the women’s role in a patriarchal society.

Excerpt:
Although the government of Pakistan took immediate measures to cope with the pandemic, such as the release of funds, establishment of quarantine centers, hiring of medical staff, and acquisition of testing kits and medicines, they faced major challenges every step of the way. A lack of facilities, equipment and supplies in hospitals, poor health system infrastructure, corruption of officials, and inconsistent implementation of government policies for managing people at borders and airports all resulted in the rapid spread of COVID-19 throughout the nation.

View/Download Document
Date: 2020/06/25

A Health Security Pandemic Checklist for Developing Nations and Donors

In this paper, the authors provide a checklist for some of the measures that were proven effective during the COVID-19 pandemic and how developing countries may apply those measures to local conditions.

Excerpt:
The COVID-19 pandemic presents as a global, complex, public health emergency that varies in impact due to geography, variations in virulence over time and space, response preparation times, available resources, culture, religion, and a host of other possible confounders. Response systems that have shown encouraging quantitative results in one nation may thus be ineffective, or even counterproductive in other places. Developed nations have responded in a variety of ways with mixed results. They thus do not have much to teach developing nations that would assist them in their preparations for the current global pandemic. There are too many variables in play. One might argue that the more serious effects of COVID-19 infection are experienced by those who manifest comorbidities associated with more affluent developed nations such as, diabetes, obesity, and heart conditions. If this is a disease of affluence rather than poverty, draconian policies will be less cost-effective in developing nations.

View/Download Document
Date: 2020/06/12
Go to Top