Perceptions of U.S. Posture in Papua New Guinea

This article compares the effects of U.S. posture on the relationship with Papua New Guinea, to that of the People’s Republic of China, along with other influences.

Excerpt
In Papua New Guinea (PNG), activities by the United States were highly visible in World War II, but have steadily declined ever since. This decay in international relations has been more obvious since the early 2000s when it is contrasted with the rise of Chinese-PNG relations on a political level and on a person-to-person level through infrastructure development and overseas education. The 2011-2012 Obama era Pivot and Rebalance to the Pacific produced a small increase in attention, but this soon waned and is already forgotten.

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Date: 2020/10/14

Strategic Competition, National Security and the Need for ‘Competitive Intelligence’

This article illustrates how Competitive intelligence lies at the center of any strategy to maintain political, economic and security posture in the Indo-Pacific region.

Excerpt
We live in an age in which technology is rapidly transforming every aspect of our lives. Since these advances bestow upon nations considerable advantages, they are coveted and sought after with increasing criminally-motivated avarice. This has increased tensions and competition between the great powers, which forces us to analyze how to compete in the present and the coming future. In this age of significant cooperation and competition, we all need a competitive edge to survive and flourish.

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Date: 2020/10/14

Maritime Domain Awareness and Maritime Fusion Centers

This article emphasizes the importance of maritime domain awareness (MDA) and the coordinating efforts of maritime fusion centers (MFC) to support those efforts.

Excerpt
The essential mission of a MFC is to strengthen MDA by gathering and analyzing data from multiple sources, fusing it into meaningful information, and disseminating actionable intelligence to operational commanders to directly improve national security, safety, economy, and environment. Not all maritime centers source data broadly enough to make fusion meaningful, and not all attempt to adequately fuse data to extrapolate new intelligence. Some of these agencies only focus on internal monitoring and have little to do with transnational events.

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Date: 2020/10/01

Achieving Effective Herd Protection with SARS-CoV-2: A strategy to prevent public health and economic collapse

This article discusses strategies to harness the collective utility of proven tools and approaches in achieving effective herd protection with SARS-CoV-2.

Excerpt
The main intention of lockdown, known in the Philippines as Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ), is to reduce the reproductive rate of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to a point near virus elimination, as demonstrated in the lockdown in Wuhan, China, and in other relatively successful countries. Beyond the direct public health goal, strict lockdown measures towards total stamping out of the virus ultimately aspires to prevent public health and economic collapse, or prolonged societal devastation, which this pandemic is capable of causing.

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Date: 2020/09/24

Ideological Necrophilia

This paper cites how the refusal of new ideas, evolution or change may be considered to be a form of “ideological” necrophilia, an atypical fixation for dead ideas, and includes several examples.

Excerpt
For those who suffer from ideological necrophilia, it is always easy to find reasons to ridicule, criticize, or reject when something is new and revolutionary.  Ideological necrophilia is a devastating condition that can affect people, organizations, companies and nations. It can manifest symptoms of blindness by success, need to eliminate any prophet, fear of change, and rationalization in order to love, refurbish, and justify the application of dead ideas, dogmas and theories.

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Date: 2020/09/24

Tarrant’s Last Laugh? The Spectre of White Supremacist Penetration of Western Security Forces

This paper brings White supremacist extremism to reality with citations and points to “Western militaries” as organizations already infiltrated with this ideology.

Abstract
White supremacist extremism, also known as “right-wing” and “far right” extremism, is a broad label of convenience that lumps together, amongst others, white nationalist, neo-Nazi, anti-immigrant, anti-gun control, anti-LGBTQ and increasingly even misogynistic grievances. While its key tropes have gestated for decades, an underlying theme that has come to the fore in recent times has been the notion of what the French philosopher Reynaud Camus in 2012 called Le Grand Remplacement (The Great Replacement). This argument holds that white, Christian Europe has been overrun by masses of black and brown Muslim immigrants from North and sub-Saharan Africa. Since the refugee crisis of 2015, in which more than a million asylum seekers fleeing conflict landed on the shores of the European Union, white supremacist-friendly intellectuals, social media, political personalities and movements have sought to mainstream the Great Replacement motif within European societies.

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Date: 2020/09/22

Gaming Major Power Rivalry and Climate Disasters Using Systems Tools

This paper documents a methodology for creating crisis-games that are designed to explore possible futures in the medium and long-term. It describes a four-step process in which security practitioners work on understanding threat systems, delve into the related underlying driving forces of the threats, create future scenarios in which these forces interact and play out, and explore these scenarios using adversarial crisis-games.

According to the authors, “While they have their limitations and are not an exact replica of reality, situational, role-playing crisis-games foster the application of creative and innovative thinking on challenges that cannot be analyzed using conventional statistical methods and provide the opportunity to investigate possible reactions. Before embarking on a potentially precarious course of action, it is useful to have insight into potential command and control issues, as well as actions that may escalate or de-escalate tensions and hostilities. Leaders need methods that not only provide systems-level knowledge, but which actively challenge assumptions, positions, expectations, perceptions, facts, and procedures to improve decision making in multidisciplinary, interagency, and complex settings.”

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Date: 2020/09/04

China’s Global Security Aspirations with Afghanistan and the Taliban

This paper details possible motives of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in forming new partnerships with Afghanistan through a historic lens, amidst the effects of COVID-19 and the U.S. withdrawal.

Excerpt
As the U.S. plans its departure from Afghanistan, China is using the COVID-19 pandemic as a backdrop to build regional ties in meetings with Afghanistan, Nepal and Pakistan that aim to extend the BRI. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, “We will actively promote the building of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the Trans-Himalayan Connectivity network, support the extension of the corridor to Afghanistan, and further unleash the dividends of regional connectivity.” As the new heightened intelligence-sharing arrangement between China and Pakistan accelerates, Beijing’s influence in Afghanistan will also expand.

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Date: 2020/08/13

An International Biodefense Shield Alliance against Pathogens from China

This paper illustrates the need for the U.S. and regional partners to create a defensive, health-security, front line for disease surveillance and control.

Excerpt

There is a clear and simple correlation between population size and the occurrence of infectious disease. This places a country, such as China, in a natural, but dangerous and precarious position. Not only does China have a large population, with many of the world’s most populous cities, but its concept of personal space facilitates the rapid spread of disease, and it is connected by trade and travel to virtually every location on the planet. Other nations with large populations such as India pale in comparison to China’s global efforts in environmental exploitation and worldwide connectedness.

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Date: 2020/08/12

Before it’s Too Late: U.S. Maritime Grand Strategy in the Indian Ocean and the Arctic Ocean

This paper examines the actions of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in the South China Sea as a means to predict their intent in the Indian and Arctic Oceans.

Excerpt

The CCP’s unlawful aggression and coercive actions during the COVID-19 global pandemic forebodingly highlight its determination to achieve its objectives at all costs. For example, the CCP recently abandoned its promises regarding Hong Kong by enacting security measures that effectively outlaw dissent and subject Hong Kong’s citizens to mainland China’s prosecution. China also enacted trade barriers to Australia for challenging the PRC’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, China was recently accused of implementing forced sterilization of its minority Muslim populations. Finally, and perhaps most alarming, India asserts that China instigated the June 2020 border clash with India in the Galwan Valley that resulted in the death of 20 Indian soldiers.

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Date: 2020/08/12
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