“Simplifying Complexity with Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning” is a new occasional paper by Dr. Deon Canyon.

According to Canyon, “The world is constantly evolving and changing, which often results in significant impacts on society and the crisis management community. Staying ahead of the curve requires not only an understanding of systems and complexity, but also creative and collaborative thinking and action.”

“Strategic foresight is a recent discipline, originating in the 1960s, that allows us to create functional views of alternative futures and possibilities. Through this process, organizations are better prepared for possible threats and are more prepared to take advantage of emerging opportunities. Rather than predicting or forecasting the future, foresight allows us to examine the external environment for trends and leverage those insights to create images of the emerging landscape. These well-informed maps of the future allow us to test our current strategy, develop breakthrough innovations, and create transformative change.”

In this paper Canyon describes the various methods, processes, and tools that can assist decision makers better understand complex problems.

You can read the full paper at this link: https://apcss.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/18-Canyon-strategic-foresight.pdf

 

Dr. Deon Canyon is a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for security Studies.  The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. government.

 

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