21 - 2020

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Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: Practitioner Insights

By |2020-08-06T11:14:26-10:00August 6th, 2020|

This paper identifies the obstacles faced by terrorists as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and includes results from a survey sent out to Comprehensive Security Responses to Terrorism (CSRT) alumni in July 2020. Excerpt The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on the world, with far-reaching social, political and economic consequences. Terrorists and security services alike have been forced to adapt. However, we still have relatively limited understanding of the changes that have occurred and what they mean for counter-terrorism (CT). This report presents the findings of an exploratory survey, completed by 100 security practitioners, in order to [...]

What States Say They Can Do and COVID-19 Status at Six Months

By |2020-07-31T15:53:18-10:00July 31st, 2020|

This paper reports finding a significant positive correlation globally between countries’ SPAR scores that indicate their capacities to deal effectively with public health risks and events and their COVID-related morbidity and mortality. Significance disappears in most cases when examined regionally. The authors offer minimal speculation as to the reasons for the unexpected finding, but sensibly suggest both additional factors, not currently assessed by SPAR, and further research. Abstract The International Health Regulations (IHR) is a critical legal tool that ensures and improves the capacity of all signatories, or States Parties, to prevent detect, assess, notify, and respond to public health [...]

Security Implications of Mass Returning Migrant workers due to COVID-19 crisis

By |2020-07-29T13:42:32-10:00July 29th, 2020|

This paper details the challenges migrant workers face and the resulting security issues brought on by COVID-19. Abstract: The issue of mass returning migrant workers has broad implications for human, national and regional security domains that go well beyond increasing unemployment. This paper reports on the complex web of security challenges surrounding migrant labor, as identified by security practitioners from the region. Regional and international cooperation are required to effectively manage the system to lessen the shock created by the COVID-19 crisis and for the longer-term challenges. Short, medium and long-term best practices and recommendations are offered to address the [...]

Strategic Competition: Why Pakistan Matters

By |2020-07-15T10:42:36-10:00July 15th, 2020|

This paper emphasizes the importance of the U.S. maintaining a strong relationship with Pakistan as strategic competition with China intensifies. Excerpt: It is worth noting that Pakistan remains vitally important to U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific, not least because of its all-weather strategic cooperative partnership with China who regards it as an “element of its strategic competition with the United States and India.” The current state of U.S.-Pakistan relations is symptomatic of an increasing ambiguity that is counterproductive to advancing U.S. interests. To state the obvious, the more the U.S distances itself from Pakistan, a country not very long ago [...]

Why We Need a Regional Approach for Crisis Management with North Korea

By |2020-07-15T12:42:53-10:00July 15th, 2020|

This paper emphasizes the need for regional cooperation and the challenges involved in addressing crisis management in North Korea. Excerpt: While North Korea has an image of a “rogue state” that threatens neighboring countries with missiles and nuclear arsenals, we must not forget that North Korean people are experiencing starvation, malnutrition, poor health system, swine flu, flooding, drought, and land-slides, all of which will only be exacerbated in the wake of the global COVID-19 crisis. North Korea’s internal problems are expected to continue to grow in the foreseeable future and disasters experienced during the summer of 2020 will exacerbate current [...]

The Intersection of Global Health, Military Medical intelligence, and National Security in the Management of Transboundary Hazards and Outbreaks

By |2020-07-07T08:43:11-10:00July 1st, 2020|

This paper identifies the many forms of evolving surveillance techniques that could be used for prevention and early warning of global pandemic outbreaks, and the resistance to such monitoring. Excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic-induced, shocking collapse of national and international trade, air travel, and tourism have rocked the world, and brought into stark relief the need for better health and disease surveillance. We have witnessed the global economy brought to its knees by the rapid spread of infection, resulting in widespread illness and many deaths. The rise in nationalism and isolationism, political use of the blame game, along with locked-down peoples [...]

Pacific Trident III:  The Strengths and Weaknesses of the U.S. Alliance System Under Gray Zone Operations

By |2020-06-26T11:41:31-10:00June 26th, 2020|

This paper looks at how tabletop exercises (TTX) are used to train participants on crisis management.  The TTX, Pacific Trident III,” was created and run by Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA (Sasakawa USA), a think tank based in Washington D.C. Excerpt: The tabletop exercise utilized two different crises at the same time, challenging the United States and allied players as to which was the 'real' crisis, and which merited prioritization. Also, both crises involved gray zone tactics (operations other than war) to achieve their objectives. In many ways, the fact that there were two gray zone operations at the same time [...]

Policy Guidance for Pakistan’s Oscillation Response to COVID-19

By |2020-06-29T14:45:58-10:00June 25th, 2020|

In this paper, Asma Khawaja and Dr. Deon Canyon detail how shifting policy guidance affected Pakistan’s response to COVID-19, including the women’s role in a patriarchal society. Excerpt: Although the government of Pakistan took immediate measures to cope with the pandemic, such as the release of funds, establishment of quarantine centers, hiring of medical staff, and acquisition of testing kits and medicines, they faced major challenges every step of the way. A lack of facilities, equipment and supplies in hospitals, poor health system infrastructure, corruption of officials, and inconsistent implementation of government policies for managing people at borders and airports [...]

A Health Security Pandemic Checklist for Developing Nations and Donors

By |2020-06-16T12:24:12-10:00June 12th, 2020|

In this paper, the authors provide a checklist for some of the measures that were proven effective during the COVID-19 pandemic and how developing countries may apply those measures to local conditions. Excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic presents as a global, complex, public health emergency that varies in impact due to geography, variations in virulence over time and space, response preparation times, available resources, culture, religion, and a host of other possible confounders. Response systems that have shown encouraging quantitative results in one nation may thus be ineffective, or even counterproductive in other places. Developed nations have responded in a variety [...]

Structuring ASEAN military involvement in disaster management and the ASEAN Militaries Ready Group

By |2020-06-10T13:56:38-10:00June 10th, 2020|

This paper explores the most recent efforts by the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus (ADMM-Plus) Experts Working Group on HADR 2017-2020 to support ASEAN’s response capacity with the development and adoption of SOPs for an ASEAN Militaries Ready Group (AMRG). Excerpt: It is clear from the ambitious vision of the One ASEAN, One Response declaration that ASEAN will continue to play an important role in international disaster response and even in conflict and peacekeeping. This vision is articulated in a provision of the foundation documentation for the AMRG which outlines the possibility of the AMRG to serve as a preventive [...]

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